PETALING JAYA: Depending on the level of voter turnout, Khairy Jamaluddin says it is not impossible for Perikatan Nasional to secure victory in Selangor.
Khairy said there are three possible outcomes for the Selangor state polls.
The first sees Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional retaining Selangor when there is a high voter turnout of 81%.
“PH-BN would secure 52% of Malay votes, which is a realistic assumption based on what PH received during the general election,” he said in an ISEAS Perspective commentary piece.
In the case of an “average” scenario, where non-Malay turnout is at 55% and Malay voter turnout is at 81%, Khairy said PH-BN would still prevail.
However, in the scenario where PN captures Selangor, Khairy said there would be a 32% drop in Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional vote share among the Malays even though there is a high voter turnout of 81%.
This would involve a modest shift in Malay support of 5%, he said.
“Much will of course depend on the campaign to see if non-Malays can be convinced to turn out in large numbers and if Malays continue to give Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his coalition the overwhelming support he desires,” Khairy added.
Khairy also said a poor outcome for BN would prompt Umno to consider leadership and strategy changes as it would reinforce the electorate’s message that the party remains “unelectable”.
“Yet, (Ahmad) Zahid’s (Hamidi) consolidation of the party through a purge earlier this year and rewarding loyalists with various appointments suggests that Umno is likely to shrug off any potentially dismal result and pretend that all is well,” he said.
The former Rembau MP added that Anwar would also be compelled to reevaluate his partnership with Umno if it performs poorly in the state elections.
“Will he want to commit himself to future electoral pacts with Umno and BN?
“Or will he treat them as temporary partners to ensure the longevity of his unity government until the end of this parliamentary term?” he asked.
